Countries commit to cut emissions but far short of the desired goal to keep global warming within limit, says new UN report

NEW DELHI: A new UN report assessing countries’ latest climate action pledges on Tuesday said the current commitments of these nations would collectively reduce global carbon emissions by 11% by 2030 and about 17% by 2035 from the 2019 levels. Though this would be the first-ever climate action–linked decline, the extent of the fall would be far short of the 60% reduction required to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius.

The report, released ahead of the upcoming UN climate conference (COP30), synthesises information from 64 countries’ new nationally determined contributions (NDCs) -- climate action targets -- communicated to the UN climate change body between Jan 1, 2024, and Sept 30, 2025.

Major emitters, including China, India and the European Union have so far not submitted their new targets. The overall picture, therefore, will be different once they submit their new NDCs ahead of COP30, which is to be held in Belem, Brazil, from Nov 10 to 21.

China and the EU have announced their targets but have yet to make a formal submission. If their announced targets are clubbed with the overall figure, the collective global carbon emissions reduction would be 10% by 2035 from the 2019 levels.

“Countries are making progress and laying clear stepping stones toward net-zero emissions but must urgently pick up the pace,” said Simon Stiell, executive secretary, UN climate change, in response to the report.

The 64 countries, including the US, Japan, Australia, Brazil, Canada, Russia, New Zealand and the UK, which have submitted their NDCs, represent only around 30% of global GHG emissions on a 2019 baseline. The American climate action targets, submitted during the fag end of the then President Joe Biden tenure, does hold any ground during the current administration as the country under President Donald Trump has already withdrawn from the Paris Agreement and refused to work on the previous pledges.

“According to their NDCs, Parties (countries) are bending their combined emission curve further downward but still not quickly enough,” said the report, emphasising the need for “major acceleration” in terms of delivering faster and deeper emission reductions to meet the desired goals.

Quantitatively, the world needs to cut 43% of its emissions by 2030, 60% by 2035, 69% by 2040 and 84% by 2050, compared to 2019 levels, to limit the warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius by the end of the century.

Referring to the financial needs of the countries for implementation of their climate action targets, the report has estimated costs of $1.97 trillion, of which approximately $1.07 trillion is needed from international sources.